Saturday, September 14, 2013

Tropical Storm Warning

Off Mexico's Pacific coast, Tropical Storm Manuel has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph). It's 150 miles (245 kilometers) off Lazaro Cardenas and 255 miles (410 kilometers) south-southeast of Manzanillo. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Acapulco to Manzanillo.

Tropical Storm Manuel 

Tropical Storms Ingrid and Manuel: Extreme Rainfall Threats for Mexico

At the same time that Ingrid is making landfall, Tropical Storm Manuel will be bringing similar rainfall amounts to the other side of Mexico. This morning's 2 am EDT run of the experimental GFDL ensemble model predicted that a large area of Mexico is at high risk of 8+ inches of rain due to the combined effects of Ingrid and Manuel. The greatest danger is on the Pacific side in Oaxaca State, where the combined effects of the circulations of the two storms will pull a flow of very moist air upwards over the mountains, creating torrential rains. The Mexican Weather Service has already received a report of about 8 inches of rain in eastern Mexican state of Oaxaca due to Manuel's rains. The massive rains that will fall in Mexico from this one-two punch of extremely wet tropical storms will cause an extremely dangerous and expensive flood disaster in Mexico.

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